Food Sovereignty: What Morocco and Ethiopia Are Doing Right

Food Sovereignty: What Morocco and Ethiopia Are Doing Right

Africa imports $65 billion worth of food every year.

Let that sink in.

A continent with 60% of the world's uncultivated arable land, abundant water resources, and over a billion people—many of them farmers—spends more on importing food than the entire GDP of most African nations.

Worse, this number is rising. In 2015, Africa's food import bill was $35 billion. By 2025, it has nearly doubled. Without urgent action, projections suggest it could reach $110 billion by decade's end.

But two countries are proving it doesn't have to be this way.

Morocco and Ethiopia—with vastly different histories, climates, and economies—have both launched aggressive campaigns for food sovereignty. Their results offer a roadmap for a continent that can no longer afford to feed itself with foreign grain.

The African Food Paradox

Before examining what's working, we must understand what's broken.

The Numbers

The contradiction is staggering: agriculture employs the majority of Africans, contributes roughly a third of GDP across the continent, yet Africa remains the world's most food-insecure region.

Why Africa Imports What It Should Grow

Several structural factors explain this paradox:

1. Colonial Agricultural Legacy

Most African countries inherited agricultural systems designed to export cash crops—cocoa, coffee, cotton, palm oil—not feed local populations. Côte d'Ivoire uses 14.8% of its land for cocoa (supplying 40% of global demand), yet the 5 million Ivorians who farm cocoa remain chronically poor while their country imports staples.

2. Chronic Underinvestment

African governments spend just 3-4% of their budgets on agriculture—half of what Asian countries invest. The Maputo Declaration of 2003 committed African nations to 10% agricultural spending, yet over two decades later, most still fall far short.

3. Yield Gap

African cereal yields average 1.6 tons per hectare—less than half the world average (4.07 t/ha) and one-fifth of US yields (8.18 t/ha). For livestock, African milk yields (0.19 t/head) are just 15% of the global average.

4. Post-Harvest Losses

Between 15-27% of production is lost after harvest due to inadequate storage, transport, and processing infrastructure. Growing more food means nothing if it rots before reaching markets.

5. Climate Vulnerability

Rainfed agriculture—the dominant mode across the continent—is increasingly precarious as climate change intensifies droughts and floods. Without irrigation, farmers are one bad rainy season away from catastrophe.

The Cost of Dependence

The Russia-Ukraine war exposed Africa's vulnerability in brutal fashion. When Black Sea grain shipments halted, food prices in sub-Saharan Africa spiked 24% between 2020-2022—the steepest rise since the 2008 financial crisis.

For countries where households spend over 50% of income on food, such price shocks push millions into hunger.

This is why food sovereignty—the ability to feed your own people with your own production—isn't just economics. It's a matter of national security.

Morocco: The Green Plan Revolution

The Strategy

In April 2008, Morocco launched the Plan Maroc Vert (Green Morocco Plan)—one of Africa's most ambitious agricultural transformation strategies.

The plan operated on two pillars:

Pillar I: Modern Agriculture

• Investment in large, market-oriented farms

• Irrigation infrastructure expansion

• Export-focused production of high-value crops (citrus, olives, vegetables)

• Public-private partnerships on state agricultural land

Pillar II: Solidarity Agriculture

• Support for smallholders in vulnerable areas (mountains, oases, semi-arid regions)

• Social projects targeting 934,000 farmers

• Cooperative development and local product valorization

• Poverty reduction through agricultural income growth

The Results (2008-2020)

The Green Morocco Plan delivered remarkable outcomes:

The plan achieved high levels of self-sufficiency for several strategic products while transforming Morocco into Africa's leading agricultural exporter to Europe.

Generation Green 2020-2030

Building on this success, King Mohammed VI launched Generation Green in February 2020—a new strategy focused less on production metrics and more on people.

Key targets for 2030:

• Double agricultural GDP from 125 billion to 200-250 billion MAD

• Double agricultural exports from 33 billion to 50-60 billion MAD

• Create 350,000-400,000 new agricultural middle-class households

• Mobilize 1 million hectares of collective lands for young entrepreneurs

• Support emergence of young agricultural entrepreneurs through training, financing, and land access

The strategy explicitly aims to create an "agricultural middle class"—transforming subsistence farmers into prosperous, professional food producers.

Innovation and Climate Resilience

Morocco's approach integrates cutting-edge technology:

• Seawater desalination for irrigation (Agadir plant operational since 2021)

• Digital e-vouchers for mechanization services and climate-resilient seeds

• Precision irrigation using AI and remote sensing

• Blockchain for supply chain traceability

• Conservation agriculture to stabilize yields and improve soil health

In December 2024, the World Bank approved $250 million for Morocco's Transforming Agri-food Systems Program—followed by an additional $4 million in December 2025—specifically targeting climate-smart practices and smallholder support.

The Unfinished Business

Morocco's success isn't without challenges:

Water stress: Consecutive droughts have strained water resources, with surface water declining and aquifers depleting. Climate change threatens to intensify this pressure.

Uneven benefits: Large, export-oriented farms captured most gains from Pillar I, while many smallholders saw limited improvement. Access to subsidies required formal land titles and capital that small farmers often lacked.

Import dependence on staples: Despite export success in high-value products, Morocco remains a net importer of bulk commodities, particularly cereals.

The country produced 43 million quintals of cereals in the 2024-25 season following favorable rains—a significant recovery after drought years—but remains vulnerable to weather volatility.

Why Morocco Matters

Morocco demonstrates that strategic, sustained agricultural investment works. Key lessons:

1. Long-term vision: Both the Green Morocco Plan (2008-2020) and Generation Green (2020-2030) provide multi-decade frameworks, giving investors and farmers certainty.

1. Dual-track approach: Combining export-oriented commercial agriculture with solidarity programs for smallholders addresses both growth and equity.

1. Technology adoption: Drip irrigation, desalination, and digital tools help do more with less water—critical as climate change intensifies.

1. South-South cooperation: Morocco now shares its agricultural expertise across Africa, positioning itself as a model for the continent.

As Agriculture Minister Ahmed El Bouari noted in 2025: Morocco's experience in agricultural policy is now "a benchmark" for many African countries.

Ethiopia: The Wheat Revolution

From Famine to Self-Sufficiency

Ethiopia was once synonymous with famine. The 1983-85 crisis killed over one million people and defined the country's image for a generation.

Three decades later, Ethiopia is attempting something extraordinary: becoming wheat self-sufficient and even a net exporter.

The National Wheat Flagship Program

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, Ethiopia was spending approximately $1 billion annually on wheat imports—an untenable drain on foreign exchange for a landlocked nation chronically short of hard currency.

The response was the National Wheat Flagship Program (NWFP), launched to:

• Expand irrigated wheat production to 1 million+ hectares

• Achieve wheat self-sufficiency by 2025/26

• Ultimately become a net wheat exporter

The program introduced cluster farming—organizing smallholders into coordinated production units—combined with year-round irrigation that allows multiple harvests.

The Numbers (Contested but Significant)

Ethiopia's wheat production claims have generated debate. Government figures and independent estimates diverge significantly:

The truth likely lies somewhere between—but even conservative estimates show remarkable progress:

• Wheat production increased from 4.8 million tons (2017/18) to at least 6.5 million tons (2024/25)—a 35%+ increase

• Ethiopia began exporting wheat in 2024 (150,000 tons)—unthinkable five years earlier

• Wheat imports dropped from $700+ million annually in the early 2010s to minimal levels

• The government claims it ceased commercial wheat imports in 2020/21

The USDA projects Ethiopia's wheat production will hit a record 6.5 million tons in 2025/26, with imports declining 24% to just 1.3 million tons.

What Ethiopia Did

1. Massive Irrigation Expansion

Ethiopia expanded irrigated farmland from minimal coverage to 2.9 million hectares by 2024—across Afar, Oromia, Amhara, and other regions.

For the 2025/2026 summer season, the country seeded 2.7 million hectares of irrigated wheat alone, targeting 17.5 million tons of production.

2. Heat-Tolerant Varieties

Through the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) program—backed by $94 million from the African Development Bank and technical support from ICARDA—Ethiopia introduced climate-smart, heat-tolerant wheat varieties suitable for lowland cultivation.

This allowed wheat farming to expand beyond traditional highland areas into the arid lowlands—dramatically increasing potential acreage.

3. Mechanization Push

The government made 400+ types of farm machinery duty-free, reducing farmers' capital costs and enabling larger-scale, more efficient production.

4. Policy Support

• 25% tariff on imported wheat flour to protect domestic millers

• Mandatory fortification requirements since August 2024 to improve nutrition

• Subsidized inputs for cluster farming participants

• Removal of bread subsidies and cessation of government wheat purchases in 2023

The Critics' Concerns

The Economist and other observers have raised legitimate questions:

Data integrity: The gap between government claims (23 million tons) and external estimates (6.5 million tons) is too large to ignore. Some suggest political pressure may have inflated figures.

Ongoing food insecurity: Despite self-sufficiency claims, 16 million Ethiopians needed food aid in 2024. The World Food Programme calls Ethiopia "one of the world's hunger hotspots."

Humanitarian imports: The government attributes remaining wheat imports to humanitarian agencies—but critics argue genuine surplus would eliminate this need.

Water sustainability: Irrigating 2.7 million hectares during dry seasons strains aquifers and river systems. Long-term sustainability is uncertain.

Crop substitution: Some farmers are replacing profitable cash crops with wheat due to government pressure—potentially reducing overall income.

What's Undeniable

Even skeptics acknowledge:

1. Production has increased substantially—whether 35% (conservative) or 400%+ (government claims)

2. Imports have declined dramatically—from billions annually to minimal levels

3. Exports have begun—Ethiopia shipped 150,000 tons of wheat in 2024

4. Infrastructure has expanded—irrigation, mechanization, and logistics improved

As the government stated in July 2025 when Ethiopia hosted the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake: "Ethiopia has become the largest wheat producer in Africa after Egypt."

The Strategic Logic

Ethiopia's wheat push isn't just about food—it's about sovereignty.

When the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global grain supplies, Ethiopia's import dependence became a geopolitical vulnerability. Black Sea wheat was a security risk.

By growing its own wheat, Ethiopia:

• Conserves precious foreign exchange

• Reduces exposure to global price shocks

• Creates rural employment (3.4 million farmers involved in 2023/24)

• Strengthens food security during conflict and drought

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called it "a risk that paid off" at the 2025 AU Summit.

Lessons for Africa

Morocco and Ethiopia pursued different strategies suited to their contexts—but common principles emerge:

1. Treat Agriculture as Strategic Priority

Both countries made agriculture a national project with sustained high-level attention. This isn't a sector to neglect while chasing oil revenues or foreign investment—it's the foundation of sovereignty.

Morocco committed to multi-decade plans (Green Morocco Plan → Generation Green). Ethiopia launched flagship programs with presidential backing.

2. Invest in Irrigation

Rainfed agriculture is increasingly untenable under climate change. Both countries dramatically expanded irrigation:

• Morocco: 542,000+ hectares under drip irrigation

• Ethiopia: 2.9 million hectares irrigated by 2024

Water is the difference between feast and famine.

3. Adopt Improved Varieties

Heat-tolerant, drought-resistant, high-yield seed varieties transform what's possible. Morocco and Ethiopia both partnered with international agricultural research institutions (ICARDA, CGIAR) to access cutting-edge genetics.

4. Reduce Post-Harvest Losses

Growing more food is useless if it rots. Both countries invested in:

• Storage facilities

• Processing infrastructure

• Transportation networks

• Cold chains for perishables

5. Support Smallholders AND Commercial Farms

Morocco's dual-pillar approach—commercial agriculture (Pillar I) and solidarity agriculture (Pillar II)—recognizes that both scales matter.

Large farms drive exports and technology adoption. Smallholders provide social stability and rural employment. Policy must serve both.

6. Protect Domestic Production

Ethiopia's 25% tariff on wheat flour imports shields domestic millers from subsidized foreign competition. Trade openness is valuable, but not when it destroys your food production capacity.

What Other African Countries Must Do

Morocco and Ethiopia offer templates—but each nation must adapt to its context. Universal imperatives include:

Increase Agricultural Spending

African governments must meet—and exceed—the Maputo Declaration's 10% target. Current 3-4% spending condemns the continent to permanent dependence.

End Cash Crop Obsession

The colonial model of exporting cocoa, coffee, and cotton while importing wheat and rice makes no strategic sense. Diversification toward food crops is essential.

Build Regional Value Chains

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can transform intra-African food trade. Currently, 82-85% of food imports come from outside the continent. This must change.

Invest in Youth and Women

Agriculture's future lies with young Africans—but they're fleeing farms for cities. Morocco's Generation Green explicitly targets young entrepreneurs. Ethiopia's cluster farming creates employment.

Women produce 70%+ of Africa's food but face systematic discrimination in land ownership, credit access, and extension services. Closing this gap could increase farm yields by 20-30%.

Climate-Proof Production

Every agricultural investment must account for climate change. This means:

• Drought-resistant varieties

• Irrigation expansion

• Climate-smart practices (conservation agriculture, agroforestry)

• Weather insurance for farmers

The Stakes

Africa's population will double to 2.5 billion by 2050.

If current trends continue—food imports doubling every decade while domestic production stagnates—the continent faces a catastrophic future of permanent dependence, chronic hunger, and political instability.

But Morocco and Ethiopia prove another path is possible.

It requires political will, sustained investment, strategic planning, and willingness to prioritize food security over cheap imports.

Africa has the land. Africa has the water. Africa has the people.

What Africa needs is the determination to feed itself.

Morocco and Ethiopia have shown the way. The question is whether the rest of the continent will follow.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much does Africa spend on food imports annually?

Africa's food import bill reached approximately $65 billion in 2025 for sub-Saharan Africa alone, according to the FAO. The continent as a whole imports between $50-65 billion annually, with projections suggesting this could reach $90-110 billion by the late 2020s without significant intervention.

What is Morocco's Green Morocco Plan?

The Plan Maroc Vert (Green Morocco Plan) was an agricultural transformation strategy launched in 2008. It operated on two pillars: Pillar I focused on modern, export-oriented commercial agriculture; Pillar II supported smallholders through "solidarity agriculture" projects. The plan increased agricultural exports by 117%, farmers' incomes by 47%, and created 342,000 jobs. It was succeeded by Generation Green 2020-2030, which focuses on creating an agricultural middle class.

Has Ethiopia achieved wheat self-sufficiency?

Ethiopia claims to have ceased commercial wheat imports since 2020/21 and become Africa's second-largest wheat producer after Egypt. Government figures claim production of 23 million tons in 2023/24, though independent estimates (USDA/FAO) suggest 6-6.5 million tons. What's undisputed: production has increased substantially, imports have dropped dramatically, and Ethiopia began exporting wheat in 2024.

Why does Africa import so much food despite having arable land?

Multiple factors explain Africa's food import dependence: colonial agricultural systems designed for cash crop exports rather than food; chronic government underinvestment (3-4% of budgets vs. the 10% Maputo Declaration target); low yields (half the world average); post-harvest losses of 15-27%; climate vulnerability of rainfed agriculture; and weak processing/storage infrastructure.

What lessons can other African countries learn from Morocco and Ethiopia?

Key lessons include: treating agriculture as a strategic national priority; investing in irrigation to reduce climate vulnerability; adopting improved seed varieties; protecting domestic production with appropriate tariffs; supporting both commercial farms and smallholders; reducing post-harvest losses through infrastructure investment; and targeting youth and women as agricultural entrepreneurs.

How does climate change affect African food security?

Climate change intensifies droughts and floods, making rainfed agriculture increasingly precarious. Morocco has faced consecutive drought years straining water resources. Ethiopia's irrigation expansion is partly a response to climate uncertainty. The FAO projects massive changes in agricultural suitability across Africa by century's end, with farming systems and food production "changing beyond recognition."

What role does the African Continental Free Trade Area play in food security?

The AfCFTA could transform African food security by enabling regional trade in food products, reducing dependence on imports from outside the continent (currently 82-85% of food imports). Regional value chains, harmonized standards, and reduced trade barriers could lower food costs, improve availability, and create employment in agriculture and food processing.

How many Africans face food insecurity?

Approximately 847 million Africans (57% of the population) experience moderate or severe food insecurity, while 282 million (20%) are undernourished—an increase of 57 million since the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of people facing food insecurity has grown from 512 million in 2014, indicating the problem is worsening despite economic growth.